SouthBay Research continues to be the most accurate labor forecaster in the United States.
Comparing the difference between forecast and the actual BLS Non-Farm Private Payrolls, SouthBay was closer than any other forecaster in the Bloomberg consensus survey.
Comparison with Top 5 Bloomberg Forecasters
(Additional Bloomberg Economist Survey performance detail here)
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPENDING IS TAPPED OUT
- Consumer Revolving Credit (what must be paid today): 0.25% Y/Y
- Non-revolving credit (what gets paid years from now): holding steady
- Look out for slower Retail spending
EU MACRO ECONOMY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
- SouthBay EU Shipping Index remains stable (saw tooth growth)
- Leads German Industrial Production by 4 months
- Indicates neither growth nor contraction through 2013
SEPTEMBER NON FARM PAYROLLS FORECAST
- Payrolls continue to grow but at a slower rate.
- The key is Retail